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🚀 Geology frontiers — 2026

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What Earth scientists are working on now. Each card states the open question, the evidence so far and the methods used — not results that have not happened yet.

  • Earthquake forecasting

    Open question: Can we forecast large earthquakes — or at least warn people seconds earlier?

    Where it stands: No reliable short-term prediction exists. Early-warning systems (Japan, Mexico, ShakeAlert in the US west coast) give seconds of warning; machine learning finds many tiny unseen quakes.

    Builds on: Seismology and plate tectonics.

    Dense seismic networksGPSMachine learning

  • Inside the inner core

    Open question: Does the inner core rotate differently from the mantle, and does it have its own innermost core?

    Where it stands: Studies of repeating earthquake waves suggest its rotation varies over decades (2023), and an 'innermost inner core' has been proposed — both are debated.

    Builds on: Lehmann's 1936 discovery.

    SeismologyMineral physics

  • Locking up CO₂ in rock

    Open question: Can CO₂ be turned into stone fast enough to help the climate?

    Where it stands: In Iceland (CarbFix), CO₂ injected into basalt became carbonate minerals within about two years (Matter et al., Science 2016). Scaling up is the challenge.

    Builds on: The rock cycle's natural chemical weathering.

    Mineral carbonationEnhanced weathering

  • Critical minerals

    Open question: Where will the lithium, cobalt and rare earths for batteries and turbines come from — sustainably?

    Where it stands: New deposits are being found with geophysics and AI; recycling and deep-sea mining are debated.

    Builds on: Ore formation at plate boundaries.

    Exploration geophysicsGeochemistryAI

  • Volcano forecasting

    Open question: Can we tell when a restless volcano will actually erupt?

    Where it stands: Satellites measure the ground swelling by millimetres; gas, quakes and swelling together give warnings, but many unrest episodes end without eruption.

    Builds on: Plate tectonics and magma physics.

    InSAR satellitesGas sensorsSeismometers

  • When did plate tectonics start?

    Open question: Has Earth always had moving plates, or did they start billions of years later?

    Where it stands: Estimates range from more than 4 to about 1 billion years ago; ancient zircons and rock chemistry are the main evidence.

    Builds on: Radiometric dating and plate theory.

    Zircon geochemistryNumerical models